Tank for Trevor: Jacksonville’s 18 years of negligence has an opportunity to be forgiven in 2021

Winning is everything in sports. As Herm Edwards once said, “you play to win the game”. While that may come off as obvious, people seem to have a hard time grasping the idea of “tanking” for a year to be in a position to draft a potential generational talent in the next draft. Imagine going 2-14 for one year in order to potentially have 15+ years of greatness. 15+ years of having a legitimate shot to achieve the primary goal in sports… winning.

The quarterback position is the most important position in sports - it is also the hardest one to get right. Getting it right can set your franchise up for a really long time and it can sometimes make up for the shortcomings at other positions. Getting it wrong, however, can set your franchise back at least 4-5 years, if not longer.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a unique, yet familiar, opportunity to – literally – stumble upon 15+ years of greatness. Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence will be playing his final year of college ball this year (assuming we have a season) and will likely be the top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Since his initial commitment to Clemson, the expectations have been overwhelmingly high, and he’s delivered. Since Week 5 of the 2018 season, Lawrence has a 25-1 record and two CFP National Championship appearances, winning the first against an Alabama team that was regarded as a top college football team ever. With a 66-12 TD-INT ratio, Lawrence has drawn comparisons to guys like John Elway and Deshaun Watson. He has been viewed as complete as any prospect since Andrew Luck in 2012. So, is it worth it to intentionally be as bad a team as you can possibly be to put yourself in a position to draft John Elway 2.0?

Short answer: yes.

The Jags have consistently been abysmal in the draft, particularly when selecting a quarterback. Aside from Mark Brunell, there has not been a QB worthy of being the “face of the franchise.” Moreover, they have taken too long to admit their mistake when it becomes apparent to everyone else. Imagine you’re a business owner and you decide to hire a manager for one of your stores. It doesn’t take long to know if you’ve made the right choice or not, so why do NFL franchises have this problem, particularly the Jacksonville Jaguars?

It took Jacksonville four years to realize Byron Leftwich was not worth the 7th overall pick in 2003. A 24-20 record over those years should have been more than apparent that he was a mistake.

The Byron Leftwich era in Jacksonville, frankly, should have never happened. It’s fair to say it may have come down to a November night in 2002 against Akron, where Leftwich displayed tremendous toughness. Early in the 1st quarter, Leftwich left the game to have x-rays done at a nearby hospital. He had broken his tibia, an injury that ranges anywhere from six weeks to six months in recovery time. Against all odds, Leftwich returns in the 4th quarter, and despite literally being unable to walk, his offensive linemen would put him on their shoulders and carry him down the field after each play. Even though they ended up losing by 14, Leftwich finished with 307 yards and one working shin. He ended up playing the next week and finishing the season without another loss.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-jzYMSiNHQ

Going into the 2003 NFL Draft, the Brunell era in Jacksonville was all but over. The prior three seasons resulted in nine losses each, so you can understand the push to find a new quarterback. However, aside from USC’s Carson Palmer, there weren’t any franchise caliber QBs. Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, and Dave Ragone rounded off the top five quarterbacks selected after Palmer.

The contrast with the 2004 QB class is night and day. The top three picks consisted of Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger. Instead of reaching on a quarterback, who had a slow and awkward release, they could – and should – have worked on finding more supporting talent and focused on grabbing a quarterback in 2004. There’s no reason why the scouting department shouldn’t be scouting the future classes as well. If they’re not, then they’re doing a massive disservice to an entire organization. Regardless, the Jags would not only miss out on two Super Bowl winners in ’04, but they would also miss out on one in Aaron Rodgers in 2005.

Now, it is really easy for me to sit here, look back in hindsight, and say they should have done this or that. GMs and coaches miss in drafts, that’s part of the game. Dozens of teams have reached on a quarterback early in a draft in hopes that he is that team’s savior. The problem is when it happens over and over again, like it has in Jacksonville.

In the 2011 NFL Draft, Jacksonville took another shot at a 1st round quarterback, this time with Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert was a 6’6, strong arm quarterback with a quick and fluid throwing motion. However, the big knock on him coming out of college was that he was a “system quarterback” and seemed to benefit significantly from Missouri’s spread offense. He lacked any kind of pocket presence. I can vividly remember watching him duck in the pocket as he was about to be hit, instead of moving away or standing tall to make the throw. The great ones take the hit and make the throw.

Days before the 2011 NFL season was set to begin, the Jaguars decided to move off of, then starting quarterback, David Garrard. He was cut by the team after starting for the past five seasons. Luke McCown took the reins as the starter for the first two games and lost his job to Gabbert in Week 3.

Things never got better for Gabbert and the Jags. He finished his time in Jacksonville 5-22 as a starter, while throwing 22 TDs, 24 INTs, and a 59.6 QB rating over three seasons. Why did it take three years to realize he wasn’t the right guy? Several factors had an impact on his performance, of course. Head Coach Jack Del Rio was fired later on in Gabbert’s rookie season. GM Gene Smith, who quite literally may have been the most egregious and incompetent general manager in NFL history, received a three-year extension for some unforeseen reason, which didn’t help in terms of building talent around him. But, the biggest cause for Gabbert’s troubles was that he just wasn’t the guy. People in sports talk about the “eye test” when it comes to evaluating a player, and Blaine Gabbert failed it about as miserably as you possibly could.

Instead of continuing to, essentially throw Gabbert at the wall to see if he’ll stick, the Jags had an opportunity to take advantage of perhaps the biggest steal in the 2012 NFL Draft. Arguably, the best quarterback in the league currently, was drafted in the 3rd round by Seattle. His name is Russell Wilson. Wilson has been to two Super Bowls, winning the first and almost winning his second, if not for Pete Carrol. The Jaguars were five spots ahead of Seattle’s 3rd round pick, and instead of taking a chance on Wilson, Gene Smith decides it is imperative to bring a punter to Jacksonville. Yes, a punter. P Bryan Anger, from Cal, was the Jacksonville Jaguars’ 3rd round pick. Anger only played four seasons in Jacksonville, while Russell Wilson is continuing to get better every year and has Seattle ready to contend again in 2020. It’s understandable to want to stay committed to Gabbert after only one year, but why not take a chance on bringing in another guy in the 3rd round? Gabbert never looked particularly good in his rookie year, and instead of drafting a punter in the 3rd round, Gene Smith could have used that pick on a guy that adds a little more competition in the QB room. After all, competition brings out the best in everyone, and if not, it shows you who doesn’t belong.

Since it took the Jaguars three seasons to figure out Gabbert wasn’t the guy, they were set back another 4-5 years. It wasn’t until 2014 that the Jags decided to use another high draft pick on another quarterback. This time, it was UCF’s Blake Bortles. Bortles had a very solid last two years as a Knight, capping off a 22-5 record as a starter with a win in the Fiesta Bowl against Baylor. Bortles was often compared to Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger due to their similar size and playing styles. However, Bortles threw the ball like Tim Tebow. The inaccuracy of his passes made him almost unwatchable at times.

Bortles saw his career in Jacksonville go through countless ups and downs. His first two seasons were abysmal, but that seemed to be glossed over by his 4,428 passing yards in 2015. Of course, the 5-11 record indicates the Jags were behind a lot and therefore inclined to throw more often. 2016 did not look any better as the Bortles-led Jags went 3-13.

At this point, the Jags should have decided they messed up again. After going 8-34 in the three years with Blake Bortles as their starter, that should have been it. Going into the 2017 NFL Draft, there were several opportunities to turn the franchise around. The roster was in much better shape overall than in the Gabbert era. In the 2017 NFL Draft, Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes were both available. Instead, however, Jacksonville used the 4th overall pick on running back Leonard Fournette from LSU. Fournette was, and still is, a good player, but to take a running back 4th overall when your current quarterback is 8-34 as a starter is considered a gross incompetence. The blame on this one goes to Tom Coughlin, who has been stuck in 1999-esque ways of doing things.

The Jags ended up having a much better 2017 season, reaching the AFC Championship game against New England and only being a 4th quarter away from reaching the Super Bowl. Don’t be fooled, though. The 10-6 campaign was not due to Blake Bortles’ play, but the defense. The 2017 defense was loaded with talent, led by CBs Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, LBs Telvin Smith and Myles Jack, and DL Calais Campbell. Perhaps the AFC Championship appearance did more harm than good, too. After the season, Blake Bortles’ contract was up and the Jags had the choice to re-sign. Of course, Jacksonville decided to do Jacksonville things and re-signed Blake Bortles to a 3-year, $54M deal.

2018 would wind up being Bortles’ last in Jacksonville. After going 3-9, Bortles would be benched for Cody Kessler and would be out of Duval in the upcoming offseason. He would finish 24-49 as a starter with 103 TDs, 75 INTs, and an 80.2 QB rating.

Instead of wasting another high draft pick on the wrong guy, the Jags decided on a new approach: spend a ton of money on a free agent QB, because that always works. Except, it actually doesn’t and there’s a reason teams rarely fork out fat contracts to free agent QBs. Teams don’t let go of really good QBs - rather they trade them for capital, or they play them. Simple as that. Franchise quarterbacks are too valuable to let go for nothing.

Philadelphia Eagles’ QB Nick Foles was a year removed from leading them to their first ever Super Bowl victory. He took the place of injured starter Carson Wentz and capped off an incredible Cinderella season as Super Bowl MVP. However, Philly decided it was best to stick with Wentz, which was the right move. Jacksonville signed Foles to a 4-year, $88M contract in 2019, only for him to go 0-4 as a starter. After a Week 1 injury against Kansas City, he could never get it rolling again. Moreover, the Jags potentially found something in 6th round pick, Gardner Minshew II.

Gardner Minshew played exceptionally well, going 6-6 as a starter with 21 TDs and 6 INTs. For a 6th round draft pick, that is outstanding value. However, the Jaguars have a unique opportunity to grab a generational talent at QB at the 2021 NFL Draft in Trevor Lawrence. There is an upside with Minshew, sure, but why not trade him while he’s still trending upwards for a 2nd round pick. He showed enough to be serviceable, especially for teams who are a QB away, like Indianapolis or Chicago. He could essentially be flipped for another starter in that draft. Plus, the Jags already have two 1st round picks. So, Jacksonville would have 4 picks in the first two rounds and the chance to upgrade from an average QB to a potential Hall of Famer.

I understand why Jags fans like Minshew. I don’t have anything against him either, and I liked what I saw from him in 2019. However, I would hate to see Jacksonville get in the way of themselves, yet again. The jury is still out on Minshew, too. Sure, he looked the part at times, but there were still some things that showed why he was a 6th round pick. And I get it, Trevor Lawrence isn’t a sure thing, but he’s damn near close enough. He’s closer to a sure thing than the Jaguars have ever been. What’s the worst that can happen? They continue to lose and get a highly drafted quarterback wrong, again? The reward far outweighs the risk.

If you’re truly a Jacksonville Jaguars fan, you should be rooting for 0-16 in 2020. You should be rooting for Doug Marone and Dave Caldwell to be out. You should be rooting for much more than you’ve been given in the last 18+ years, because it’s not enough.

Duuuuval.